China’s 2025 Victory Day parade highlighted a significant expansion of its land-attack cruise and ballistic-missile arsenal, and more importantly, a visible push towards a variety of hypersonic missiles to augment its deterrent posture. Broadly, China’s strategic missiles can be split into two categories: missiles equipped with a conventional payload, and missiles equipped with nuclear warhead(s).
In first segment, conventionally armed missile systems were presented. First missile to enter the parade arena was CJ-20A sub-sonic air-launched cruise missile (ALCM). This missile is carried by H-6K bombers. With a range exceeding 1,500 km, it gives China the ability to project power deep into the Western Pacific without leaving its own airspace. In terms of performance, it mirrors the U.S. AGM-86 ALCM, but with operational deployment tailored to China’s A2/AD strategy.
In the hypersonic domain, hypersonic cruise missile (HCM), air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM), and hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) were demonstrated to parade arena. All these systems are TEL mounted. The CJ-1000, carried in pair by each TEL, is canisterized hypersonic cruise missile featuring a solid-rocket booster and air-breathing scramjet propulsion, enabling it to achieve speed above Mach 5. In general terms, CJ-1000 is hypersonic successor of supersonic CJ-100 cruise missile. The exact range of missile is estimated to be more than 6000 km, which combined with its speed and mobility, makes it valuable option for precise targeting of deeply situated well-protected high value enemy assets.
Then, YJ-21 ALBM, considered Chinese counterpart of Russia’s Kinzhal missile, was unveiled. This missile is carried by H-6K bombers and can undertake evasive maneuver while attaining hypersonic speed in terminal phase. The designation “YJ” suggests that it is characterized for anti-surface operations in the naval domain. This missile is believed to be a potent weapon in China’s disposal for targeting U.S. Navy carrier strike groups in the Pacific.
DF-17 medium range ballistic missiles, integrated with DF-ZF/Wu-14 HGVs, were displayed once again. It was first shown in 2019, and by then was considered the first ever operational hypersonic weapon system in world. DF-ZF/Wu-14 higher maneuverability and low-altitude flight combined with hypersonic speed allows it to outclass enemy’s land and surface based sensors and missile defenses.
After DF-17, DF-26D – the most advance version of DF-26 family, made the public debuted. The DF-26 family is often dubbed as “Guam Killer” for its range and precision. One of its versions, called DF-26B is China’s longest range anti-ship ballistic missile (AShM) designed to thwart U.S. Navy carrier strike groups. What type of enhancements has been undertaken and in what capacity the “D version” of DF-26 will be employed is yet to be known. Some speculate that this modular dual-stage ballistic missile might incorporate active-radar seeker or decoys to defeat U.S. missile defense systems in the Pacific. If true, then this missile represents the cutting edge of China’s guided AShM arsenal. Presence of variety of hypersonic missiles, launched from diverse platforms suggests that China now possess multi-platform multi-domain hypersonic strike capability representing the “qualitative axis” of China’s multi-layer A2/AD strategy.
CJ-20A, CJ-1000, YJ-21, DF-17, and DF-26D at China’s 80th Victory Day Parade
In second segment, consisting of nuclear armed ballistic missiles, China essentially displayed its next generation nuclear triad. JL-1 dual-stage air-launched ICBM was exhibited first while mounted on truck. Carried by modified H-6N bombers, these missiles represent China’s next generation leap in air-leg of nuclear triad. It worth noting that despite sharing similar designation, JL-1 is an entirely new system and should not to be confused with old generation JL-1 submarine-launch ballistic missile (SLBM). By design, ALBM have longer range than their land or sea based counterpart due to advantages associated with altitude and speed of launch platform. According to accouchement made during parade, the range of JL-1 was claimed to be approximately 8,000 km. It is also worth noting that the capability of JL-1 will sustainably enhance in future when next generation H-20 stealth bomber will replace the legacy H-6N bomber fleet.
In the domain of sea-leg, JL-3 SLBM mounted on truck was displayed. JL-3 SLBMs are carried by Type-094 nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) and represent China’s sea-based assured retaliatory capability. These solid-fueled ballistic missiles have range of 10,000 km and can carry three multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV). Each Type-094 has twelve silos for each JL-3 SLBM, and in total six Type-094 SSBNs are currently operational in PLAN. In future, JL-3 is expected to arm the next generation Type-096 SSBNs also. Therefore, this missile essentially constitutes the mainstay of China’s retaliatory nuclear posture.
The land-leg of nuclear triad was represented by road-mobile TEL mounted DF-61 ICBM, silo-based DF-31BJ ICBM, and massive liquid fueled silo-based DF-5C ICBM. DF-61 ICBM appears very similar to DF-41 ICBM shown in 2019 Victory Day Parade. The dimensions of missile canister and even TEL look near identical suggesting that DF-61 can be an improved version of DF-41. The exact capabilities and type of improvements are unknown. This three-stage solid fueled missile is estimated to have range of 15,000 km with MIRV capability. DF-31BJ ICBM appearance caught many by surprise as it looked very different than rest DF-31 family. The TEL of DF-31BJ appears like a loader for carrying and loading the missile in silo. It is speculated to be an upgraded and silo-based version of DF-31AG with reported maximum range of 11,200 km. In the end, the massive DF-5C liquid fueled silo based ICBM finally made the first ever public appearance. The missile was split into three different sections: first stage on a long truck at the end, second stage on a short truck in mid, and a warhead reentry vehicle in front. This missile is believed to carry a single multi mega-ton warhead. The open display of diverse variety of China’s land leg of nuclear triad signals high-degree of survivability through mobility of TEL as well as hardening and concealment of fixed silos.
JL-1, JL-3, DF-61, DF-31BJ, DF-5C at China’s 80th Victory Day Parade
Given that China adheres to a No First Use (NFU) policy these new age missile systems significantly reinforce the credibility of China’s retaliatory nuclear posture. For NFU to be meaningful, a state must demonstrate that it possesses a secure, survivable, and reliable second-strike capability—otherwise, adversaries may doubt its ability to retaliate after absorbing first nuclear attack. The introduction of JL-1 air-launched ICBMs, MIRV capable JL-3 SLBMs, and new generations of road-mobile and silo-based ICBMs fulfill this requirement by enhancing distribution, survivability, extending range, and increasing the complexity of targeting for any nuclear armed adversary. As discussed in previous article, China has made substantially progress in developing integrated layered air-defense systems which can theoretically intercept vast variety of cruise and ballistic threats. From a strategic standpoint, these advancements do not necessarily indicate a shift toward first-use options, but rather a move to close vulnerabilities that could undermine NFU credibility in a crisis. The combination of new-age nuclear delivery platforms and integrated layered defensive shield will elevate China from a minimalist deterrent posture toward a more robust assured-retaliation capability on par with the U.S. and Russia despite possessing significantly less number of nuclear weapons.
